Donald Trump
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US President-elect Trump is meeting with world leaders. Just in the last week or so, he’s been on the same page as Canada’s Justin Trudeau, France’s Macron, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Argentina’s Javier Mire, and even Spending time with Prince William.
But the same cannot be said for Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba, despite the embattled prime minister’s frantic scramble behind the scenes to gain an audience at Mar-a-Lago.
How, if at all, should Tokyo officials interpret what could easily be seen as a major snub? One possibility is that Trump plans to hit Japan harder in the next trade war than the political establishment in Tokyo currently thinks.
Arguably, Trump had no better friend among the global leadership during his 2017-2021 presidency than Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party partner, the late Shinzo Abe.
In November 2016, Abe became the first world leader to fly to Trump Tower in New York to congratulate Trump after his shock election win. Abe has done much more than that. He used eloquent words to vouch for the “America First” president. Abe told reporters that day, “I am convinced that Mr. Trump is a leader I can have confidence in” and a “trusting relationship.”
Abe has since made global headlines for dining with Trump at the White House, including at Trump’s Florida golf club.
While Abe praised Trump’s ways, he also gave away his expensive golf gear, including a $3,755 driver and other ultra-fancy clubs. Many political observers praise Abe as a geopolitical Trump whisperer who has helped shield Japan from Trump’s wrath.
The unpopular Ishiba is keen to repeat Abe’s mistakes. Shortly after Trump’s victory in November, Ishiba sought a meeting with Trump. It would be better if Shigeru Ishiba could act preemptively like Abe. But “Trump World” rejected Ishiba and cited the 1799 Logan Act as a reason for the next U.S. president to avoid contact with foreign leaders.
Since then, Tokyo has been forced to watch a veritable parade of Ishiba’s peers to attract Trump’s audience. Ouch!
To be sure, Ishiba is not the only Asian leader wondering “what brings what.” In Seoul, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol has been seeking a meeting. When he wasn’t declaring martial law, Yoon was practicing his golf swing for the first time in eight years as his administration prepared for tee times at Mar-a-Lago. To no avail.
Ishiba and Yoon (or whoever succeeds him) now have more reason to worry that the collateral damage from Trump’s trade war won’t be as indirect as officials in Tokyo and Seoul hope.
It can be said that Japanese and Korean automobile executives have experienced sleepless nights. Part of this sense of paranoia stems from Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico (he has also hinted at the possibility of 200% tariffs). This comes on top of Trump’s threat to impose 60% tariffs on China.
Why do Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, Kia and other top Asian automakers think they will avoid the coming Trump storm?
The weekend drama only got more complicated. Trump said in an interview with NBC that he had been in contact with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in recent days. “We have communicated,” Trump said. He added, “I have an agreement with President Xi and I get along very well with him.”
The transaction involved illicit drugs such as fentanyl that may have come from China. Ishiba – along with Toyota, Honda and Nissan – is worried about a “grand bargain” trade deal between the U.S. and China, which would make Japan an outsider.
Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail is understandably inconsistent with his hopes of pursuing a trade deal between the two blocs. Looking at the people Trump 2.0 wants to hire, it’s hard to think that a massive trade war can be avoided.
Trump’s “tariff man” instincts are reflected in his actions against hard-liner Peter Navarro, author of a book called “ Died in Chinaas top trade adviser. The same goes for Marco Rubio, the aggressive China critic, as Trump’s secretary of state. Or adding Jamieson Greer to Trump’s trade negotiating team.
There was always hope that Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, would convince the next White House to focus on the art of the deal. But Ishiba’s party has reason to worry that over the next four years Trump will forget his first administration’s close ties with Tokyo.
Things did not turn out the way Abe had hoped. All this groveling has not stopped Trump from withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the centerpiece of Japan’s efforts to contain China. It doesn’t give Japan a pass for Trump’s 1.0 tariffs. Abe was humiliated when Trump announced his nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Ishiba should focus more on strengthening domestic economic strength rather than trying to build a good relationship with Trump. Of course, be enthusiastic and willing to work with Team Trump. But the president-elect appears ambivalent about Japan’s place in the Trump 2.0 orbit. For a man who makes good use of his rings, kissing the ring may simply signal weakness.
